New poll spells disaster for California Republicans

U.S. Capitol Building

Republicans are trailing by double digits in a new poll of 30 swing congressional districts, including six California districts.

Democrats have scored major electoral victories in the past several months, including winning a Senate seat in deep-red Alabama and a House seat in one of the reddest areas of Pennsylvania. A new poll shows these victories may be just the beginning.

Polls taken by Lake Research Partners show Democrats are leading Republicans by 11 points (46-35) in 30 swing districts across the nation.

The poll, which measured generic Democrats versus generic Republicans rather than looking at specific incumbents or challengers, includes six congressional districts, all currently held by Republicans: Jeff Denham (CA-10), Steve Knight (CA-25), Ed Royce (CA-39), Mimi Walters (CA-45), Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48), and Darrell Issa (CA-49).

Throughout the districts, almost 40 percent of voters “strongly support” a Democratic candidate, while only 27 percent “strongly support” a Republican candidate.

“Democrats have a tremendous opportunity in the 2018 election to win these districts,” the pollsters noted.

While bad news for Republicans, the overall outcome of the poll is in line with other data from Southern California. Democrats are narrowing the voter registration gap in Orange County, which was once a Republican stronghold. In Knight’s district, registered Democrats now outnumber registered Republicans.

Nonpartisan election watchers increasingly think Democrats have a good shot at flipping many California seats to their control, an opinion likely to be buoyed by this new research.

Separate polling shows voters are unhappy with Knight and Walters for their votes on the Republican tax bill, which encourages companies to move American jobs offshore.

Rohrabacher’s unwavering support of Russia, even to the point of undermining the U.S. intelligence community, is likely appreciated by Trump, but maybe not so much by voters.

Issa and Royce both choose retirement over running again.

Trump continues to be a motivating factor all over the country, and especially in California. His approval rating is a dismal 27 percent among likely voters, and his racist rhetoric and treatment of women is leading California Republicans into “permanent political exile,” says a former Republican Capitol Hill staffer.

The more information that comes out, the bleaker the situation looks for Republicans.

Despite his toxic reception, California Republicans continue to embrace Trump, even if it leads to the end of their political careers. And come November, it just might.